Lleqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) M makroekonomika Lleqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) nikoloz ostapenko

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) Sesavali makroekonomikur doneze gamoiyofen saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, warmoebis faqtorebis, fulis da finansur bazrebs. saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze nayidi da gayiduli produqciis moculobebi erTmaneTis tolia, magram es ar niSnavs, rom waroebuli da gayiduli produqciis raodenobac erTmaneTis toli iqneba. wonasworul mdgomareobaSi warmoebuli da gayiduli produqciis raodenoba erTmaneTis tolia.

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) Sesavali wonasworobis SenarCuneba damokidebulia imaze, Tu rogoria saojaxo meurneobebis damokidebuleba moxmarebis mimdinare donisadmi, mocemul momentisaTvis sawarmoo ZalTa arsebuli ganviTarebis donis pirobebSi. amitom Cveni Seswavlis sagani iqneba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazaarze wonasworobis pirobebi da is faqtorebi, romlebic gavlenas axdenen wonasworobis Camoyalibebasa da darRvevaze.

erToblivi moTxovna da misi struqtura leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) erToblivi moTxovna da misi struqtura saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze myidvelebis rolSi makroekonomikur doneze gamodian: saojaxo meurneobebi, mwarmoeblebi, saxelmwifo da danarCeni msoflio. es subieqtebi ayalibeben moTxovnas saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze.

kerZo Sida investiciebi saxelmwifos moxmareba leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) erToblivi moTxovna da misi struqtura GDP=s komponentebi GDP = C + I + G + NX saojaxo meurneobebis moxmareba kerZo Sida investiciebi wminda eqsporti saxelmwifos moxmareba

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) erToblivi moTxovna da misi struqtura Ex 140% G 120% I 100% C 80% 60% 40% 20% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 saqarTvelos mSp-s struqtura 1996-2007 wlebisaTvis

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) moxmareba rogor iReben gadawyvetilebas saojaxo meurneobebi sakuTari moTxovnis formirebisas saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze? arsebobs uamravi faqtori, romelic maT gadawyvetilebaze zemoqmedebs, magaliTad, rogoricaa mimdinare gankargvadi Semosavlebi(gadasaxadisagan Tavisufali Semosavlebi), maTi qonebis sidide, saprocento ganakveTi, maTi molodinebi momavlTan dakavSirebiT, konstituciuri wesrigi, socialuri uTanasworoba da sxva. Tu Cven SeviswavliT am da sxva faqtorebis da miTxovnis damokidebulebas miviRebT sxvadasxva moTxovnis mrudebs. ekonomistebi zogadad moTxovnaze faqtorTa didi jgufis zemoqmedebis faqts aRiareben. Tumca azrTa sxvadasxvaoba warmoiSoba imasTan dakavSirebiT Tu, romeli faqtori ufro metad mniSvnelovania erToblivi moTxovnis gansazRvrisas.

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) moxmareba keinzianelebi miiCneven rom yvelaze ufro mniSvnelovani faqtori aris mimdinare gankargvadi Semosavlebi, klasikosebi ki miiCneven, rom adamianebi gadawyvetilebas iReben mkacrad subieqturad da is damokidebulia saprocenro ganakveTsa da adamianTa mier drois konkretul momentSi upiretesobebis ganawilebaze.

moxmarebis da danazogebis funqcia leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) moxmareba moxmarebis da danazogebis funqcia keinzianuri koncefciis mixedviT mimdinare moxmareba damokidebulia mimdinare Semosavlebze da igi e.w. “ZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoniT” ganisazRvreba, romlis mixedviTac adamianebi, Semosavlebis zrdisas midrekilni arian gazardon TavianTi moxmareba. algebrulad “ZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoni” Semdegi formiT SegviZlia CavweroT: MPC < 1, da MPC + MPS = 1, sadac MPS – danazogebisadmi zRvruli midrekilebaa. aqedan gamomdinareobs daskvna, rom danazogebi mimdinare Semosavlebzea damokidebuli: S=S(Y) sadac, - avtonomiuri moxmarebaa; - moxmarebisadmi zRvruli miderkileba;

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) moxmareba moxmarebis funqcia saojaxo meurneobebi gadawyvetilebas iReben ara mTeli TavianTi Semosavlis mixedviT. aramed mxolod gankargvadi Semosavlis( )mixedviT: sadac, - proporciuli sagadasaxado ganakveTia Sesabamisad

moxmarebis funqcia C C(y) α Ca β Y moxmareba leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) moxmareba C Y moxmarebis funqcia C(y) Ca α β

saqarTvelos moxmarebis funqcia 1997-2007 wlebisaTvis leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) moxmareba saqarTvelos moxmarebis funqcia 1997-2007 wlebisaTvis 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) investiciebi investiciebi investiciebi sawarmos mimdinare danaxarjebisagan gansxvavebiT Sedegs imave periodSi ar iZleva, romelSic igi xorcieldeba, aramed mTel rig momdevno periodebSi. amitom investiciuri danaxarjebis Sefasebisas warmoiSoba sxvadasxva periodis Rirebulebebis Sedarebis problema, romelis gadawyvetac diskontirebis saSualebiT aris SesaZlebeli. makroekonomikaSi drois faqtoris gaTvaliswineba mniSvnelovania. saprocento ganakveTi(i) aris normativi, romlis safuZvelzec dRevandeli fuli da saqoneli SeiZleba gaicvalos momavalSi drois gansazrvrul momentisaTvis fulsa da saqonelze.

saprocento ganakveTi da mocemuli Rirebuleba leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) investiciebi saprocento ganakveTi da mocemuli Rirebuleba mocemuli Rirebuleba(PV) aris momavalSi fulis Rirebuleba dayvanili dRevandel Rirebulebaze. magaliTad, Tu saprocento ganakveTi 10%-ia momdevno periodSi 1 laris mimdinare Rirebuleba iqneba ≈0.91 lari. zogadad Cven SegviZlia CavweroT: Y1 Y2 Yn (1+i) (1+i)2 (1+i)n + +…+ PV= rac niSnavs rom, imisaTvis, rom momaval 1,2,...n periodebSi gvqonoda Y1, Y2,… Yn Semosavali (∑Yi=CFt), sabaziso(nulovan) periodSi unda dagvebandebina PV odenobis Tanxa.

investiciebis zRvruli efeqturoba da wminda mocemuli Rirebuleba leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) investiciebi investiciebis zRvruli efeqturoba da wminda mocemuli Rirebuleba imisaTvis rom gavigoT ramdenad Rirs investiciis(I0) dabandeba amisaTvis saWiroa gaviangariSoT ras udris am investiciebis zRvruli efeqturoba(IRR). IRR aris iseTi saprocento ganakveTi romelsac wonasworobaSi moyavs Semdegi toloba: Io=∑ Yk (1+IRR)k k=1 n miRebuli, IRR SegviZlia SeudaroT an sxva altenatiuli proeqtis IRR-s an sabanko depozitis saprocento ganakveTs(i) anac sxva finansuri aqtivis saprocento ganakveTs. meoresmxriv, imisaTvis rom gavigoT ramdenad Rirs investiciis(I0) dabandeba amisaTvis saWiroa gaviangariSoT wminda mocemuli Rirebuleba(NPV). risTvisac saWiroa erTmaneTs SevudaroT I0 da PV. sadac PV Sefasdeba alternatiuli proeqtis saprocento ganakveTiT(IRR) an sabanko saprocento ganakveTiT(i). Tu NPV>0 maSin, Rirs investiciebis ganxorcieleba Tu NPV<0 maSin, ar Rirs investiciebis ganxorcieleba NPV= - I0 + PV

investiciebis funqcia leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) investiciebi investiciebis funqcia maSasademe Tu nebismieri sxva saprocento ganakveTi mcirdeba, maSin izrdeba ganxorcielebadi investiciuri proeqtebis raodenobac. IRR, i I α i2 i1

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) saxelmwifo xarjebi saxelmwifo xarjebi - G saxelmwifo axorcielebs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sesyidvas kerZo seqtorisagan da awarmoebs sazogadoebriv dovlaTs. sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi SeiniSneba mSp-Si saxelmwifo xarjebis wilis zrdis tendencia: XX-is dasawyisSi saSualod is Seadgenda 10%, xolo XXI-is dasawyisSi – ukve 40-60%. SeuZlebelia agreTve saxelmwifo xarjebis optimalobis Sefaseba. saxelmwifo xarjebis moculobas, garda saxelmwifo biujetis tipiuri xarjebisa(saerTo daniSnulebis saxelmwifo momsaxurebis Tavdacvis, sazogadoebrivi wesrigisa da usafrTxoebis, garemos dacvis da sxva), gansazRvravs fiskaluri politikis miznebi. saxelmwifo biujeti dgindeba parlamentis mier, rogorc wesi erTi wliT adre.

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) saxelmwifo xarjebi saxelmwifo Sesyidvebis saSualebiT garda pirdapiri zemoqmedebisa saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze, saxelmwifo zemoqmedebs iribadac, gadasexadebisa da sesxis aRebis (obligaciebis gamoSvebiT) gziT. sagadasaxado ganakveTebisa da moculobis cvlilebiT saxelmwifo zemoqmedebs gankargvad Semosavalebze da Sesabamisad saojaxo meurneobebis samomxmareblo moTxovnaze. sesxis aRebis SemTxvevaSi - fasiani qaRaldebis bazarze ganxorcielebuli operaciebis Sedegad icvleba saprocento ganakveTi da Sesabamisad mwarmoeblebis moTxovna investiciebze.

wonasworoba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze – IS modeli leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) IS modeli wonasworoba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze – IS modeli ganvixiloT daxuruli ekonomika, maSin: xolo, wonasworobis piroba aris: sadac, - aris dagegmili danaxarjebi(erToblivi miwodeba) - faqtiuri danaxarjebi (erToblivi moTxovna)

keinzianuri jvari E E Z1 Warbi miwodeba Y Warbi moTxovna Z2 45 o Y leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) IS modeli keinzianuri jvari 45 o E E Y Z1 Warbi miwodeba Y Warbi moTxovna Z2 MPC

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) Tu izrdeba sagadasaxado ganakveTi, maSin Y mrudis daxris kuTxe izrdeba mcirdeba da Tu mcirdeba sagadasaxado ganakveTi - mcirdeba. Tu mcirdeba moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba, maSin Y mrudis daxris kuTxe mcirdeba da Tu izrdeba moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba - izrdeba. Tu izrdeba avtonomiuri moxmareba, investiciebi anda saxelmwifo xarjebi, maSin mrudi gadaadgildeba zemoT da piriqiT. E Y 45 o Y1 Y1=E1 Y2 Y2=E2 ΔA

IS modelSi i da Y –is kombinaciebi iZleva IS mrudis wertilebs. leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) IS modeli E, A A E Y 45 o i A i1 Y1 i Y Y2 i2 IS Ca+G IS modelSi i da Y –is kombinaciebi iZleva IS mrudis wertilebs.

IS mrudis mdebareobis ganmsazRvreli faqtorebi leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) IS modeli IS mrudis mdebareobis ganmsazRvreli faqtorebi IS mrudis daxris kuTxe tolia:

IS mrudis mdebareobis ganmsazRvreli faqtorebi leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) IS modeli IS mrudis mdebareobis ganmsazRvreli faqtorebi IS mrudis gadaadgileba. rom gavigoT ra ganapirobebs IS mrudis paralelur gadaadgilebas amisaTvis unda dauSvaT, rom i=const, maSin SegviZlia Y Semdegnairad gamovsaxoT: Tu am gamosaxulebas gavawarmoebT, A-s mimarT gveqneba: maSasadame IS mrudi gadaadgildeba Tu Seicvleba avtonomiuri moxmareba(Ca), kapitalis zRvruli efeqturoba(R), investiciebis mgrZnobiaroba saprocento ganakveTis cvlilebisadmi (li), investiciebis moculoba(I) da saxelmwifo xarebi(G). ΔA-s mamravls avtonomiuri xarjebis multiplikatori ewodeba.

multiplikatoruli efeqti leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) IS modeli multiplikatoruli efeqti multiplikatori gviCvenebs Tu ramdeniT gaizrdeba erToblivi moTxovna( Y) avtonomiuri xarjebis(A) erTi erTeuliT gazrdis SemTxvevaSi. radgan 1-MPCy (1-t) < 1, amitom multiplikatori erTze meti iqneba. es ki imas niSnavs, rom avtonomiuri xarjebis erTi erTeuliT gazrdis SemTxvevaSi erToblivi moTxovna gaizrdeba erTze meti sididiT. multiplikatoris efeqtis axsna Semdeg logikiT SeiZleba: magaliTad saxelmwifo zrdis Tavdacvis xarjebs 100 ful. erT. maSin, Tu moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba 0.7-ia, maSin Tavdacvis sferoSi dasaqmebulibi daxarjaven 0.7.100=70 dauSvaT sayofacxovrebo teqnikis Sesyidvaze, sayofacxovrebo teqnikis mwarmoeblebi ki 0.7.70=49 sakvebi produqtebis SeZenaze da a.S. zogadi saxiT es procesi ase Caiwereba: ΔA –s Tanamamravli usasrulo geometriuli progresiis jamia romelic tolia: v

fiskaluri politika da mulTiplikatoruli efeqti leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) IS modeli fiskaluri politika da mulTiplikatoruli efeqti E A E Y ΔG i1 i A i Y Y1 Y2

ZiriTadi cnebebi saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari saojaxo meurneobebi leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli) ZiriTadi cnebebi saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari warmoebis faqtorebis bazari fulis bazari finansuri bazari saojaxo meurneobebi mwarmoeblebi saxelmwifo danarCeni msoflio wonasworoba ZiriTadi fsiqolofiuri kanoni moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba danazogenisadmi zRvruli midrekileba avtonomiuri moxmareba gankargvadi Semosavali mocemuli Rirebuleba investiciebis zRvruli efeqti wminda mocemuli Rirebuleba sagadasaxado ganakveTi saxazino obligacia keinzinuri jvari IS modeli avtonomiuri danaxarjebis multiplikatori