saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi

Παρουσίαση με θέμα: "saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi"— Μεταγράφημα παρουσίασης:

1 saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi
M makroekonomika leqcia 7 saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, sasesxo kapitalis, fulis da Sromis bazrebis urTierTqmedeba) nikoloz ostapenko

2 wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi moklevadian periodSi gvaqvs ori mniSvnelovani daSveba: 1. fasebi xistia – rac niSnavs rom moklevadian periodSi fasebis done ekonomikaSi ar icvleba; 2. ekonomika ar imyofeba sruli dasaqmebis doneze – rac niSnavs rom ekonomikaSi arsebobs Warbi sawarmoo simZlevreebi; situacias roca erTdroulad yvela makroekonomikuri bazari wonasworobaSi imyofeba, magram ara sruli dasaqmebis doneze, ewodeba saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi;

3 leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi
wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi IS-LM modeli IS modeli warmoadgens mTliani Sedida prodiqtisa(Y) da saprocento ganakveTis(i) wyvilTa simravles, romelic Seesabameba wonasworul fass(P*) da gulisxmobs, rom investiciebi(I) da danazogebi(S) erTmaneTis tolia(anu sasesxo kepitalis da saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarebi wonasworobaSia). LM modeli - mTliani Sida prodiqtisa(Y) da saprocento ganakveTis(i) wyvilTa simravles, romelic Seesabameba wonasworul fass(P*) da gulisxmobs, rom fulze moTxovna(L) da fulis miwodeba(M) erTmaneTis tolia da wonasworoba miRweulia fasiani qaraldebis bazarzec(anu finansuri bazari wonasworobaSia). amitom saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, kapitalis da fulis bazarze erToblivi wonasworobas Seesabameba mxolod erTi (Y*, i*) wyvili. grafikulad es SegviZlia Semdeg nairad vaCvenoT:

4 Y A Las Ltr A E=Y E E,A i i LM i* IS M/P Y M/P Y2 A2 A1 A1 Y1 Ca+G 1/V
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi E=Y E Y E,A A Y2 A2 A1 A1 Y1 i Y Las Ltr i A LM i* IS M/P Ca+G 1/V M/P

5 erToblivi wonasworobis damyarebis pirobebi moklevadian periodSi
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi erToblivi wonasworobis damyarebis pirobebi moklevadian periodSi Tu ekonomika IS mrudis zemoT mdebarobs, maSin adgili aqvs siWarbes saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze. Tu ekonomika IS mrudis qvemoT mdebarobs, maSin adgili aqvs deficits saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze. Tu ekonomika LM mrudis zemoT mdebarobs, maSin adgili aqvs siWarbes fulis bazarze. Tu ekonomika LM mrudis qvemoT mdebarobs, maSin adgili aqvs deficits fulis bazarze. Tu ekonomika ar imyofeba wonasworobaSi. maSin wonasworonisken gadasvla sxvadasxva nairad SeiZleba ganxorcieldes, es damokidebulia “ adamianTa subieqtur qcevaze”. arsebobs tendencia, rom xSir SemTxvevaSi saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari ufro nela modis wonasworobaSi vidre fulis, radgan warmoebis moculobis cvlilebas ufro meti dro sWirdeba vidre fulis moculobis. i Y LM i* Y* IS

6 erToblivi wonasworobis damyareba moklevadian periodSi
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi erToblivi wonasworobis damyareba moklevadian periodSi dauSvaT ekonomika imyofeba H wertilSi(YS>YD da M>L), radgan bazarze monawileTa gegmebi ar emTxveva erTmaneTs, amitom mosalodnelia miwodebis koreqtirebebi. fulis miwodebis siWarbe fulis bazarze gamoiwvevs saprocento ganakveTis Semcirebas, flis miwodeba daiwyebs Semcirebas, xolo moTxovna zrdas i2-Si fulis bazari mova wonasworobaSi, magram saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze am dros iqneba kvlav siWarbe. moklevadian periodSi saprocento ganakveTis Semcireba erTis mxriv, gamoiwvevs investiviuri moTxovnis zrdas, magram meores mxriv msgavsad viTardeba movlenebi sxva situaciaSic. sawarmoebi aRmoaCenen Warb maragebs da daiwyebsn warmoebis Semcirebas, da maSasadame dasaqmebis Semcirebas, rac Seamcirebs Semosavlebs. es ukanaskneli ki gamiwvevs kvlav siWarbes fulis bazarze da procesi ganmeordeba manam sanam ar damyardeba wonasworoba i*, Y* werTilSi. i Y H i1 Y1 LM i2 G Y2 i* Y* IS

7 IS mrudis gadaadgileba –axal wonasworobaSi gadasvla
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi IS mrudis gadaadgileba –axal wonasworobaSi gadasvla dauSvaT ekonomika imyofeba wonasworobaSi (i0, Y0) wertilSi da investorebi zrdian investiciebs ΔI sidisdiT. maSin IS mrudi gadaadgildeba marjvniv ΔI-is Sesabamisi multiplikatoris sidisdiT. i0 saprocento ganakveTis pirobebSi erToblivi moTxovna izrdeba Y2 sididemde. magram rogorc vxedavT am SemTxvevaSi fulis bazarze deficitia (M<L). radgan saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze gaizarda moTxovna, amitom gaizarda fulze moTxovnac garigebebisaTvis. Tu erovnuli banki ar gazrdis fuli masas, maSin adamianebi ase rom fulis bazari amcirebs multiplikatoris efeqts. daiwyeben TavianTi aqtivebis fulad gadaqcevas, magaliTad fasiani qaRaldebis, rac gamoiwvevs am aqtivebis fasis dacemas da saprocento ganakveTis zrdas. saprocento ganakveTis zrda ki gamoiwvevs sainvesticio moTxovnis Semcirebas vidre wonasworoba ar damyardeba (i1, Y1) wertilSi. i Y LM ΔI Y1 i1 i0 Y2 IS0 IS1 Y0

8 LM mrudis forma – sami kerZo SemTxveva
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi LM mrudis forma – sami kerZo SemTxveva I monakveTze LM mrudi daxris kuTxe dabalia. es gamowveulia erTis mxriv, Semosavlebis dabali doniT, ris gamoc garigebebze fulze moTxovna dabalia; meore mxriv dabali saprocento ganakveTis gamo maRalia fulze moTxovna rogorc qonebaze; II monakveTze LM mrudi daxris kuTxe ufro maRalia vidre I monakveTze da ufro da ufro izrdeba. es gamowveulia imiT rom, SedarebiT maRali Semosavlebis donis gamo gazrdilia garigebebisaTvis fulze moTxovna da saprocento ganakveTis zrdis gamo Semcirebulia fulze moTxivna rogorc qonebaze; III monakveTze Zalian maRali saprocento ganakveTebis gamo qonebis seqtori dacarielebulia fulisgan, amitom garigebebisaTvis fulze moTxovnis dakmayofileba veRar xorcieldeba. Sedegad veRar izrdeba ekonomika. i Y LM III I II

9 IS mrudis gadaadgilebis sami kerZo SemTxveva
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi IS mrudis gadaadgilebis sami kerZo SemTxveva Tu IS mrudi LM mrudis I monakveTze imyofeba, maSin IS mrudis gadaadgilebisas mTlianad gamovlendeba avtonomiuri xarjebis multiplikatoris efeqti. imitom rom aseT SemTxvevaSi saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze erToblivi moTxovnis zrdis Sedegad gazrdili moTxovna fulze garigebebisaTvis umeteswiled qonebis seqtorSi arsebuli fuliT dakmayofildeba. ris gamoc saprocenro ganakveTi umniSvnelod gaizrdeba. Tu IS mrudi LM mrudis II monakveTze imyofeba, maSin IS mrudis gadaadgilebisas nawilobriv gamovlendeba avtonomiuri xarjebis multiplikatoris efeqti. imitom rom aseT SemTxvevaSi erToblivi moTxovnis zrdiT gazrdili fulze moTxovna garigebebisaTvis fasiani qaRaldebis gayidviT kmayofideba. rac saprocento ganakveTis zrdas iwvevs. Tu IS mrudi LM mrudis III monakveTze imyofeba, maSin IS mrudis gadaadgilebisas avtonomiuri xarjebis multiplikatoris efeqti nulis tolia. imitom rom aseT SemTxvevaSi erToblivi moTxovnis zrdiT gazrdili garigebebisaTvis fulze moTxovnis dasakmayofileblad sakmarisi fulis raodenoba ar aris ekonomikaSi. IS0 i Y LM IS1 IS0 IS1 IS0 IS1

10 LM mrudis gadaadgileba
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi LM mrudis gadaadgileba dauSvaT ekonomika imyofeba wonasworobaSi (i0, Y0) wertilSi da erovnuli banki zrdis fulis miwodebas es gamoiwvevs LM mrudis gadaadgilebas i0 saprocento ganakveTis pirobebSi. erTis mxrov warmoiqmneba Warbi fulis masa ekonomikaSi, meoremxriv siWarbe saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze. Warbi fulis gamo saojaxo meurneobebi zrdian moTxovnas fasian qaraldebze da sxva aqtivebze, ris gamoc am ukanasknelTa fasi izrdeba, xolo saprocento ganakveTi mcirdeba (i1). saprocento ganakveTis Semcireba zrdis sainvesticio moTxovnas da izrdeba erovnuli Semosavali (Y1). maSasadame fulis miwodebis Sedegad adgili aqvs multiplikatorul efeqts. i Y LM0 LM1 i0 i1 Y1 IS Y0

11 likviduri maxe wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi likviduri maxe Tu wonasworoba myardeba LM mrudis I monakveTze (i0, Y0) wertilSi, maSin ekonomika xvdeba e.w. likvidur maxeSi da fulis masis cvlileba(LM mrudis gadaadgileba) ar cvlis realur Semosavals.(Y)(keinzianuri koncefciis mixedviT). i Y LM0 LM1 i0 IS Y0

12 investiciuri maxe wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi investiciuri maxe Tu ekonomikaSi magaliTad investorebSi Warbobs momavalTan dakavSirebiT pesimisturi molodinebi, es imas niSnavs rom saprocento ganakveTis cvlileba, am SemTxvevaSi, aRar aris investiciebze zemoqmedebis mniSvnelovani faqtori da IS mrudi vertikaluri xdeba. aseT viTarebaSi ekonomika xvdeba investiciur maxeSi. Tu ekonoika imyofeba (i0, Y0) wertilSi, maSin fulis masis cvlileba(LM mrudis gadaadgileba) ar cvlis realur Semosavals. (keinzianuri koncefciis mixedviT). i Y LM1 LM0 IS i0 Y0

13 wonasowroba grZelvadian periodSi
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi wonasowroba grZelvadian periodSi grZelvadian periodSi gvaqvs ori mniSvnelovani daSveba: 1. fasebi elastikuria – rac niSnavs rom grZelvadian periodSi fasebis done ekonomikaSi icvleba; 2. ekonomika imyofeba sruli dasaqmebis doneze –dasaqmebis im doneze, roca misi zrda an Semcireba amcirebs ekonomikis efeqturobas – anu mis optimalur doneze;

14 sruli dasaqmeba da warmoebis potenciuri done
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi sruli dasaqmeba da warmoebis potenciuri done dauSvaT N sruli dasaqmebis donea – dasaqmebis am doneze Sromaze moTxovna da misi miwodeba erTmaneTis tolia.Y – warmoebis potenciuri donea – anu warmoebis done sruli dasaqmebis(N), kapitalis mocemuli maragebis(K) da arsebuli teqnologiis pirobebSi(A). Cven SegviZlia misTvis sawarmoo funqcia Semdegi saxiT CavweroT: Y=AF(K,N) F – warmoebis faqtorebsa(K,N) da warmoebis moculobas(Y) Soris kavSirs gamoxatavs.

15 FE - mrudi wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi FE - mrudi Cveni mizania miviRoT mrudi romelic sruli dasaqmebis pirobebs (Y,i) koordinatTa sistemaSi gviCvenebda. vinaidan sruli dasaqmebis pironebSi warmoebis moculoba mxolod erTi Y=Y tolia, amitom is ar aris damokidebuli saprocento ganakveTis cvlilebaze da mas vertikaluri saxe eqneba. aRvniSnoT sruli dasaqmebis mrudi FE –Ti. D Y=AF(K,N) furmulidan Cans rom Tu: mwarmoebluroba - A icvleba grZelvadian periodSi FE –mrudi gadaadgildeba; kapitalis maragebi – K icvleba grZelvadian periodSi FE –mrudi gadaadgildeba; mosaxleobis raodenoba da maSasadame Sromaze moTxovna – N icvleba grZelvadian periodSi FE –mrudi gadaadgildeba; FE i Y Y

16 saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi sutuacias roca yvela makroekonomikuri bazari imyofeba erTdroulad wonasworobaSi da amasTan ekonomika imyofeba sruli dasaqmebis doneze ewodeba saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi. FE mrudi gviCvenebs yvela wonasworul wertils roca Sromis bazari imyofeba wonasworobaSi; IS mrudi gviCvenebs yvela wonasworul wertils roca saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari imyofeba wonasworobaSi;(sasesxo kapitalis bazaric) LM mrudi gviCvenebs yvela wonasworul wertils roca fulis bazari imyofeba wonasworobaSi; saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworobis wertils grZelvadian periodSi yovelTvis gansazRvravs IS da FE mrudebs gadakveTis wertili. LM mrudi fasebis donis koreqtirebis xarze uaxlovdeba am mocemul wonasworobas.

17 wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi ekonomika E werTilSi imyofeba saerTo ekonomikur wonasworobaSi grZelvadiani periodisaTvis. imitom rom am SemTxvevaSi wonasworobaSia erTdroulad, rogorc saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, ise sasesxo kapitalis, fulis da Sromis bazrebi. amasTan ekonomika imyofeba sruli dasaqmebis doneze. FE i Y LM E i* Y* IS

18 LM mrudis gadaadgileba
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi LM mrudis gadaadgileba Tu izrdeba fulis miwodeba es zrdis realuri fulis miwodebas moklevadian periodSi da LM mrudi gadaadgildeba marjvniv, maSin moklevadian periodSi gaizrdeba erToblivi mowodeba. saprocento ganakveTis Semcirebis gamo mwarmoeblebi gazrdian investiciebs da maSasademe moTxovnas Sromaze rac gazrdis realur xelfass. realuri xelfasis zrdis gamo mwamoeblebi gazrdian fasebs. fasebis zrdis gamo Semcirdeba erTis mxriv samomxmareblo moTxovna da meores mxriv realuri fulis raodenoba. maSsadame Semcirdeba warmoebis moculoba da LM mrudi gadmoadgildeba isev ukan, oRond gazrdili fasebis pirobebSi. FE FE, i Y LM LM, E i* Y* IS Y1

19 ZiriTadi cnebebi IS modeli LM modeli FE modeli
leqcia 7 -saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi ZiriTadi cnebebi IS modeli LM modeli FE modeli saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba; xisti fasebi elastikuri fasebi sruli dasaqmeba warmoebis potenciuri done likvidurobis maxe investiciuri maxe