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“ΠΑΡΟΝ ΚΑΙ ΜΕΛΛΟΝ ΚΛΙΜΑ" Χρήστος Ζερεφός, Ακαδημαϊκός Πρόεδρος της Διεθνούς Επιτροπής Όζοντος.

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Παρουσίαση με θέμα: "“ΠΑΡΟΝ ΚΑΙ ΜΕΛΛΟΝ ΚΛΙΜΑ" Χρήστος Ζερεφός, Ακαδημαϊκός Πρόεδρος της Διεθνούς Επιτροπής Όζοντος."— Μεταγράφημα παρουσίασης:

1 “ΠΑΡΟΝ ΚΑΙ ΜΕΛΛΟΝ ΚΛΙΜΑ" Χρήστος Ζερεφός, Ακαδημαϊκός Πρόεδρος της Διεθνούς Επιτροπής Όζοντος

2 «ΟΥΚ ΑΙΕΙ Δ’ ΟΙ ΑΥΤΟΙ ΤΟΠΟΙ ΤΗΣ ΓΗΣ ΕΝΥΓΡΟΙ ΕΙΝΑΙ ΟΥΤΕ ΞΗΡΟΙ ΑΛΛΑ ΜΕΤΑΒΑΛΛΟΥΣΙΝ … ΚΑΤΑ ΜΕΝΤΟΙ ΤΙΝΑ ΤΑΞΙΝ ΝΟΜΙΖΕΙΝ ΧΡΗ ΤΑΥΤΑ ΓΙΓΝΕΣΘΑΙ ΚΑΙ ΠΕΡΙΟΔΟΝ …» ΑΡΙΣΤΟΤΕΛΟΥΣ ΜΕΤΕΩΡΟΛΟΓΙΚΑ Βιβλίον Ι Κεφ 14 Από τη «Σχολή των Αθηνών» του Ραφαήλ, ο Πλάτων και ο Αριστοτέλης

3 Χωρίς θερμοκηπικά αέρια η μέση θερμοκρασία της Γης θα ήταν περίπου -19 ο C, ενώ σήμερα είναι ο C ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ

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5 CO2 εγκλωβισμένο στους Παγετώνες 1850 μ.Χ μ.Χ μ.Χ. Έτη CO2 (ppm) ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ

6 Κυκλικές μεταβολές Χιλιάδες Έτη πριν από σήμερα (2010) ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ

7 Η ενδεκαετής ηλιακή δραστηριότητα από το 1600 εως το 2000 ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ

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9 Figure 1.1 | Main drivers of climate change. The radiative balance between incoming solar shortwave radiation (SWR) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is influenced by global climate ‘drivers’. Natural fluctuations in solar output (solar cycles) can cause changes in the energy balance (through fluctuations in the amount of incoming SWR). Human activity changes the emissions of gases and aerosols, which are involved in atmospheric chemical reactions, resulting in modified O3 and aerosol amounts. O3 and aerosol particles absorb, scatter and reflect SWR, changing the energy balance. Some aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei modifying the properties of cloud droplets and possibly affecting precipitation. Because cloud interactions with SWR and LWR are large, small changes in the properties of clouds have important implications for the radiative budget. Anthropogenic changes in GHGs (e.g., CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, CFCs) and large aerosols (>2.5 μm in size) modify the amount of outgoing LWR by absorbing outgoing LWR and re- emitting less energy at a lower temperature. Surface albedo is changed by changes in vegetation or land surface properties, snow or ice cover and ocean colour (Section 2.3). These changes are driven by natural seasonal and diurnal changes (e.g., snow cover), as well as human influence (e.g., changes in vegetation types) (Forster et al., 2007). IPCC, 2013, Chapter 1

10 Figure 2.24 | Global annual average lower stratospheric (top) and lower tropospheric (bottom) temperature anomalies relative to a 1981–2010 climatology from different data sets. STAR does not produce a lower tropospheric temperature product. Note that the y- axis resolution differs between the two panels. IPCC, 2013, Chapter 2

11 Figure 1: Layer mean temperature variations in northern hemisphere summer (JJA) at layers hPa, hPa, hPa and hPa calculated from NCEP reanalysis and FU-Berlin datasets and filtered from natural variations for three latitudinal belts a) 5N-30N, b) 30N - 60N and c) 60N - 90N. The respective summer normalised time series of temperature from RICH dataset at levels 850 hPa, 500 hPa, 50 hPa and 30 hPa are also illustrated as well as the NCEP tropopause pressure. The trends lines before and after 1979 are superimposed. Grey lines denote NCEP reanalysis variations. Green lines denote variations as depicted in the FU-Berlin analysis, while purple dotted lines the RICH data temperature. The units at vertical axis are in degrees o C except for the tropopause that is in hPa. Zerefos et al., 2014

12 Ψυχρές νύχτεςΨυχρές μέρες Θερμές μέρεςΘερμές νύχτες IPCC, 2007

13 Μέση βροχόπτωση το χειμώνα στη Μεσόγειο από ιστορικές και άλλες πηγές από το 1500 έως το (Luterbacher et al., 2006)

14 IPCC, 2007

15 Δορυφορικές εικόνες της ξήρανσης της λίμνης Αράλης στην Κεντρική Ασία, με διαφορά 30 ετών Λίμνη Αράλη 1973Λίμνη Αράλη 2004 Η λίμνη Αράλη συρρικνώθηκε κατά 75% από το Η λίμνη Τσαντ στην Αφρική συρρικνώθηκε κατά 95% από το Η στάθμη της Νεκράς θάλασσας μειώθηκε κατά 25μ τα τελευταία 50 χρόνια. Η ακτογραμμή στο Μπαγκλαντές πρέπει να επανασχεδιαστεί λόγω απωλειών στη θάλασσα. Η παγωμένη επιφάνεια στο όρος Κιλιμάντζαρο στην Αφρική έχει μειωθεί περισσότερο από 80% ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ

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17 Ενδείξεις αλλαγής της στάθμης της θάλασσας τα τελευταία 22 χιλιάδες χρόνια στη Μεσόγειο ~8-6 ka Wells (Israel) Grotta Verde (Sardinia) ~22 ka Cosquer (France) ~3.5ka Bronze age Sites (Israel) ~2ka Roman age Sites (Med) ~0.5ka Bizanthyne Sites (Med) Ανθρω- πόκαινος ~2.5ka Greek age Sites (Med) -120 m -8.5 m -6 m -2.5 m m -0.5 m χρόνος 1-2 mm/yr EGU Vienna M. Anzidei

18 r.s.l.c.> 3m in 1.6 ka Kekova The Lycian tombs r.s.l.c.> 4m in 2.5 ka Cleopatra’s bath Twelve islands SW Turkey – seismic region

19 Λεπτομέρεια από παράσταση στην αψίδα του Γαλερίου όπως φωτογραφήθηκε προπολεμικά από το Γερμανικό Αρχαιολογικό Ινστιτούτο (αριστερά) και όπως φωτογραφήθηκε σήμερα από το συγγραφέα (δεξιά). Ζερεφός, 1984

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21 Mean Air Temperature , SRES A1B : Over Greece Mean annual air Temperature increase by 1.4 o C : Over Greece Mean annual air Temperature increase by 2.8 o C (SRES B2) up to 3.9 o C (SRES A2) Temperature increase is more significant during summer and autumn than during winter and spring. Temperature increase is more prominent over land. SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change between and Mean Air Temperature Change between and SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change between and

22 SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between and SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between and Precipitation , SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 6.5% : Over Greece Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 5% (SRES B2) and by 18% (SRES A1B, SRES A2) Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between and

23 Relative Humidity , SRES A1B: Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease by 2% : Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease for 2.5% up to 4% (SRES B2) and for 6% up to 10% (SRES A2) Relative Humidity decrease is predicted to be more significant for summer season. SRES A1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between and SRES A1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between and Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between and

24 Wind Speed For Greece as a whole mean annual Wind Speed will be not change during 21 th century : Mean annual Wind Speed is predicted to increase up to 5% over Aegean and on the contrary is predicted to decrease up to 5% over Ionian During summer Etesian Winds will be increase significantly up to 10% SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between and SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between and Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between and

25 Cloud Fractional Cover , SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is predicted to be reduced by 6% : Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is predicted to be reduced by 8% (SRES B2) by 12% (SRES A1B) by 14% (SRES A2) SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between and SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between and Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between and

26 Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation , SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation increase by 1,3 W/m : Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation increase by 3,1 W/m 2 (SRES B2) by 4,1 W/m 2 (SRES A2) The increase is more prominent over land, especially in western and northern parts SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation Change between and SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation Change between and Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation Change between and

27 Changes in Costal Areas because of Sea Level Rise Coastline Retreat Under Flooding Area Coastal Areas with a) Moderate Vulnerability (green) b) High Vulnerability (red)

28 Conclusions for Greece , SRES A1B : Over Greece Mean annual air Temperature increase by 1.4 o C : Over Greece Mean annual air Temperature increase for 2.8 o C (SRES B2) up to 3.9 o C (SRES A2) Temperature increase is more significant during summer and autumn than during winter and spring. Temperature increase is more prominent over land , SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 6.5% : Over Greece Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 5% under SRES B2 and by 18% under SRES A1B and SRES A , SRES A1B: Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease by 2% : Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease for 2.5% up to 4% under SRES B2 and for 6% up to 10% under SRES A2 Relative Humidity decrease is predicted to be more significant for summer season.

29 Conclusions for Greece For Greece as a whole mean annual Wind Speed will be not change during 21 th century : Mean annual Wind Speed is predicted to increase up to 5% over Aegean and on the contrary is predicted to decrease up to 5% over Ionian During summer Etesian Winds will be increase significantly up to 10% , SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is predicted to be reduced by 6% : Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is predicted to be reduced by 8% under SRES B2, by 12% under SRES A1B and by 14% under SRES A , SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation increase by 1,3 W/m : Mean Annual Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation increase by 3,1 W/m 2 under SRES B2 and by 4,1 W/m 2 under SRES A2 The increase is more prominent over land, especially in western and northern parts Transportation Cost for the infrastructure maintenance €594,8m/year to €195m/year depending on the GHG emissions Cost of delays in service due to climate change (extreme events, overheating of infrastructure etc.): €28bn to €9.3bn

30 Οι πολύ υψηλές θερμοκρασίες στην Ευρώπη το θέρος του 2003 θα αποτελούν τον κανόνα μέχρι το 2040 και θα θεωρούνται χαμηλές μετά το 2060! Ανωμαλία στη θερμοκρασία (ºC) Έτος ΠΝΕΥΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΙΔΙΟΚΤΗΣΙΑ ΧΡΗΣΤΟΣ Σ. ΖΕΡΕΦΟΣ


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